Six months after Manhattan’s congestion pricing program took effect on January 5, 2026, the data is available to start judging it. Last week, the MTA released its six-month report — required under the program’s federal environmental approval — and the headline numbers are clearer than partisans on either side want to acknowledge.

The numbers

Traffic volumes inside the zone are down 11–14 percent versus 2024. The agency’s monitoring uses 47 traffic counter locations across the 60th Street perimeter. The pre-program target was 9.6 percent.

Peak-window speeds inside the zone are up 18 percent on average. Peak-window is the program’s tolling hours: 5 a.m. to 9 p.m. weekdays. The improvement is most pronounced on the FDR Drive (+23 percent) and West Side Highway (+19 percent).

Toll revenue: $678 million gross between January 5 and April 4. That’s an annualized run rate of approximately $2.71 billion. The agency’s pre-program projection was $1 billion in year one — set deliberately conservative.

$642 million allocated to the 2025–2029 capital plan. That’s gross revenue minus toll-collection processing fees and refunds. The MTA has now committed roughly $4.4 billion of the $58 billion plan.

The diversion question

The most contested finding is what’s happened to traffic on routes that bypass the zone. The pre-program review predicted a 3–5 percent increase in volumes on the BQE through Brooklyn and on the Bronx-bound Major Deegan as commuters routed around the zone.

The actual data shows BQE southbound volumes through downtown Brooklyn up approximately 4.2 percent during peak hours — within the predicted range. The Major Deegan and Cross Bronx Expressway, by contrast, have not seen statistically significant volume changes.

The lawsuit

New Jersey’s federal lawsuit, filed in November 2025 by Governor Phil Murphy’s administration, was rejected at the district court level in February. New Jersey’s appeal to the Second Circuit Court of Appeals is scheduled for oral argument July 9, 2026.

The legal argument is narrow: New Jersey contends the federal NEPA review of the program was insufficient because it did not adequately analyze the impact of diversion onto routes through New Jersey.

A loss for the MTA at the Second Circuit would not necessarily end the program — it would likely require an additional NEPA analysis.

What comes next

Three near-term decisions will shape the program’s trajectory: the June board vote on toll-rate inflation indexing; the September review of the 311 commercial-vehicle exemptions; and the federal court timeline. Oral arguments on July 9 mean a decision could come anytime from late 2026 through mid-2027.

Frequently Asked Questions

How much money has congestion pricing raised so far?
$678 million in gross toll revenue between January 5 and April 4, 2026, per the MTA's six-month report. After processing costs and refunds, $642 million is allocated to the agency's $58 billion 2025–2029 capital plan.
Has Manhattan traffic actually gone down?
Yes. Traffic volumes inside the congestion zone (Manhattan south of 60th Street) are down 11–14% versus the same period in 2024. Peak-window speeds within the zone are up 18% on average, with the most pronounced improvements on the FDR Drive (+23%) and West Side Highway (+19%).
What's the status of the lawsuit?
New Jersey filed a federal lawsuit in November 2025 arguing the program's federal NEPA approval was insufficient. The U.S. District Court for the District of New Jersey ruled against New Jersey in February 2026. New Jersey appealed. Oral arguments at the Second Circuit are scheduled for July 9, 2026.
Has the program changed traffic in the outer boroughs?
Modestly. Traffic volumes on the BQE southbound through Brooklyn are up approximately 4.2% during peak hours since program launch — consistent with diversion concerns the MTA's environmental review predicted at 3–5%.